People living near waterways are being warned to stay away from rivers and streams as melting snow and rainfall could lead to minor flooding and ice jams.
A weather system moving into the Great Lakes region will bring rain to the Ausable Bayfield watershed starting Tuesday, March 4th. Forecasters expect between 15 to 25 millimeters of rain to fall by Wednesday, March 5th. With temperatures staying above freezing and reaching up to 9°C on Wednesday, most of the remaining snow is expected to melt.
Recent snow surveys show that the current snowpack contains a high amount of water, with levels above the seasonal average. Combined with the forecasted rain, this will cause water to run off quickly, especially since the ground is already wet from previous melting. Streams and rivers are already higher than usual, and the additional runoff could cause minor flooding in low-lying areas and temporarily close some roads that typically flood.
The cold winter has created thick ice on local rivers and streams, which is now starting to break apart. Ice jams are unpredictable, making it difficult to know where and when they will form. Areas most at risk include the lower Ausable River between Ailsa Craig and Port Franks, as well as parts of the Bayfield River. Ice jams can lead to unexpected flooding and may also damage nearby structures.
People should avoid walking on any ice-covered bodies of water, as conditions are unsafe. Residents should also be cautious around rivers and streams, as water levels will be higher and faster than normal. Slippery banks and extremely cold water create additional dangers.
The Ausable Bayfield Conservation Authority (ABCA) will continue monitoring conditions and provide updates as needed. This warning will remain in effect until 9:00 a.m. on Monday, March 10th, unless conditions change
